https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/ Research on prediction markets, AI, and where the next bets are — by Viet Ho & John Nguyen. en-us Sat, 06 Jun 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/manufacturing-reality.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/manufacturing-reality.html The third route to physical-AI data: generate it. World models, the sim-to-real loop, and the trust coefficient on synthetic data. A thesis. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/one-brain-many-bodies.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/one-brain-many-bodies.html Cross-embodiment learning trains a single policy across many robot bodies, so data captured on one improves the rest. A multiplier on captured data — not a substitute for it. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/who-owns-physical-data.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/who-owns-physical-data.html The moat in physical AI has a geography. It is owned wherever the physical work — and the operators — already are. A thesis. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-probability-layer-of-the-internet.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-probability-layer-of-the-internet.html We started with a contract that pays $1 if it rains. The capstone of a 24-part series: the probability layer — what it prices, where it plugs in, why now, and the honest edge. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-cost-of-a-market.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-cost-of-a-market.html Liquidity isn't free. An always-on market maker loses money to the informed — that expected loss is the subsidy that bootstraps the market. Who funds it draws the map of what's tradable. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/futarchy.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/futarchy.html Vote on values, but bet on beliefs. The case for governing by prediction market — and the four reasons it's a lens, not yet a blueprint. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/perps-come-onshore.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/perps-come-onshore.html The CFTC just opened the door to regulated crypto perpetual futures, and the first licensed event-contract venue walked through it. Same playbook, new product — a prediction-market exchange becomes a regulated-derivatives venue. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/ai-data-for-the-physical-world.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/ai-data-for-the-physical-world.html Physical-world AI is bottlenecked on data that doesn't exist yet — and unlike internet data, capturing it has a geography. A thesis. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/there-is-no-internet-for-robots.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/there-is-no-internet-for-robots.html The internet is an accidental log of human cognition. For physical action there is no equivalent log — and it can't be scraped, because it was never recorded. Going modality by modality on the data wall. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/what-a-robots-training-data-costs.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/what-a-robots-training-data-costs.html Physical data has a linear marginal cost — you buy it by the hour. The unit economics of capture, and why every physical-AI lab is a data-cost-engineering company. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/when-ai-trades-the-future.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/when-ai-trades-the-future.html AI agents are becoming better probabilistic forecasters than most humans. What happens to a prediction market when the traders are bots — and what does a market of bots still tell us? Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/markets-vs-the-experts.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/markets-vs-the-experts.html Tetlock, the superforecasters, the Iowa markets: the evidence that aggregated, money-backed forecasts beat experts — and the honest limits of that claim. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-truth-layer.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-truth-layer.html Smart contracts can't see the outside world. Oracles feed it in — and for a prediction market the oracle decides who won. How they're built, how they're attacked, and why no oracle is trustless all the way down. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/what-prediction-markets-cant-do.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/what-prediction-markets-cant-do.html The honest limits: thin markets, long horizons, reflexivity, unresolvable questions, and markets that shouldn't exist. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-global-license-map.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-global-license-map.html Prediction markets are won one country at a time. A region-by-region read on who regulates event contracts, where it's contested, and why the first licensed venue in each market tends to keep it. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/inside-kalshis-ramp.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/inside-kalshis-ramp.html $1.8M to $263M in two years, $2B to $22B in nine months. The most compressed exchange-revenue curve on record — and the honest read on what's driving it. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/winner-takes-most.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/winner-takes-most.html Liquidity compounds. In exchanges the loop tips toward one venue — and once a market goes onshore, the first licensed, liquid venue is very hard to unseat. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-crypto-exchange-playbook-again.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-crypto-exchange-playbook-again.html We have seen this movie. The US legitimizes an asset class, every market licenses it one regulator at a time, and the first licensed venue wins the liquidity. The moat is the license, not the tech. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/information-vs-entertainment.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/information-vs-entertainment.html It's both at once: the mechanism emits information no matter what's traded, but what people trade today is mostly entertainment. The entertainment subsidizes the information layer. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 24 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-cftc-and-the-birth-of-an-asset-class.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-cftc-and-the-birth-of-an-asset-class.html How a single 2020 regulatory line turned event contracts from a grey-zone product into a licensed asset class — and why the first licensed venue runs away with the liquidity. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 17 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/hedging-the-uninsurable.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/hedging-the-uninsurable.html There's no insurer for 'Candidate X wins' — but there's a contract. The line between a bet and a hedge is the same instrument, opposite intent. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 10 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/event-contracts-are-derivatives.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/event-contracts-are-derivatives.html A binary option on a real-world fact: the payoff is a step function, the price is a risk-neutral probability, and both sides post full collateral. The financial anatomy of an event contract. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 03 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/can-you-trust-the-price.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/can-you-trust-the-price.html Manipulation, insider trading, and self-correction — why a price pushed off fair value is free money, and the one case where you really should be skeptical. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 24 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/who-decides-whats-true.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/who-decides-whats-true.html Settlement is where prediction markets quietly live or die. Centralized resolvers vs decentralized oracles — and why a market can price an outcome perfectly and still burn you. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-market-maker-problem.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/the-market-maker-problem.html An empty order book quotes nothing. Two algorithms fix it — Hanson's LMSR and the constant-product AMM — and the choice between them is the choice of who pays for liquidity. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/its-not-gambling.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/its-not-gambling.html A casino sets the odds against you and bakes in a margin. A market lets the price float to the crowd's best estimate. The difference is who sets the odds. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 03 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/a-price-is-a-probability.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/a-price-is-a-probability.html A market price is a testable claim. Here's how you grade it — calibration and the Brier score — and why markets pass. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 27 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/why-prediction-markets-matter.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/why-prediction-markets-matter.html A price is a probability. How prediction markets turn skin in the game into a forecast sharper than any poll — and why the category just went from rounding error to a billion-dollar month. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 20 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/prediction-markets-explained.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/prediction-markets-explained.html A price is a probability. How prediction markets actually work — the math, the money, and the moment. John Nguyen & Viet Ho Tue, 13 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/what-is-a-prediction-market.html https://research.seekerlabs.xyz/articles/what-is-a-prediction-market.html A contract that pays $1 if something happens. Its price is a live probability. The plain-English foundation for everything else. Viet Ho & John Nguyen Tue, 06 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000